MAN00012I: Advanced Quantitative Methods

Word count requirements

The word count for this assignment is 2,500 words.

You must state on the front of your assignment the number of words used and this will be checked.

The main text for this assignment must be word-processed in Arial, font 12, double spacing, minimum 2cm margins all around.

You must observe the word count specified in this assignment brief. The School has a policy of accepting variations to the recommended word count of plus or minus 10%.

What does this mean for you?

Markers will mark your work up to the word count maximum plus 10% and then will stop marking; therefore all words which are in excess of the word count plus 10% will not be marked.

Where your word count is more than 10% below that specified, it is likely that this will result in a lack of analytical depth or relevant content, which will be reflected in the mark assigned.

What is in the word count?

The word count includes:

–         the main text, including in-text reference citations and quotations.

The word count does not include:

–       Appendices.

These may be used to include supporting data, which may be too detailed or complex to include as a Table. They are not a device to incorporate material, which would otherwise cause you to exceed the word limit.

–       Title page

–       Contents page

–       Abstract/executive summary

–       Tables, figures, legends

–       Reference lists

–       Acknowledgements

Assessment: Case Background

1. The Union of Yorkshire Golf Clubs held a member satisfaction survey in 2021 in which they also ask for the total time that their members spent in the golf clubs during the year. Members rated the facilities in their associated golf clubs for the overall condition of the golf club including the condition of the tees, greens, fairways and bunkers. The Union has approached you to help investigate which (if any) factors influence the time spent (hours per year) at their member golf clubs.

To help you with the analysis, the Union has provided you a dataset (GolfData.sav) which includes the following information for the year 2021:

• Time Spent (Hours)
• Member’s Age (Years)
• Length of Membership (Years)
• Member’s Sex (1 = Male, 0 = Female)
• Membership Status (2 = Full adult member, 1 = Young adult / student member, 0 = Junior member)
• Overall Condition of the Course (2 = Excellent, 1 = Good, 0 = Poor)
• Region (2 = North Yorkshire, 1 = West Riding, 0 = East Riding)

The president of the Union has asked you to fit an appropriate Multiple Linear Regression model (without interactions) in SPSS and provide a detailed report of your methodology and findings. In addition, they would like you to use your model to predict how many hours a 35-year old female who has a full adult membership for 5 years from North Yorkshire and who thinks that the overall condition of the course is good would spend on the golf course in a year.

2. On a different matter, the Union has received complaints from the golf course employees regarding heavy workloads and long hours of working. Hence, the Union has also asked you to include in your report a ‘Time Series’ based analysis on the average number of hours that the employees work each month. To do this, the Union has given you access to their data (xlsx), which records the average number of hours the employees worked at the golf courses, each month between 2019-2021. The Union would like to know if there is any evidence of employees working long hours in recent years and would also like you to predict the average number of hours that the employees would work in December 2022. (The average monthly hours of work for full-time employees are reported as 138.

The president of the Union would like the methodology and analysis included in the original report.

To help you with each stage of this assessment, below is a list of the key steps that should be carried out within your analysis:

1) Multiple Linear Regression:

• Create dummy variables for the categorical variables (Sex, Membership Status, Overall Condition of the Course and Region) (Baseline categories are coded as “0” and underlined.)
• Test for multicollinearity
• Fit the regression model using the ‘Backward Reduction Method’ with 10% significance level for parameter/variable elimination.
• Analyse and discuss characteristics of fitted model (coefficient estimate, quality of fit, hypothesis tests, etc.)
• Check model assumptions of constant variance and normality of errors (other assumptions can be ignored in this assessment)
• Make point prediction using equation
• Discuss limitations of point prediction and determine prediction intervals using SPSS.

2) Time Series:

• Create plot to determine type of model (Additive or Multiplicative)
• Fit corresponding model
• Calculate the RMSE and MAPE of model
• Plot past data and predictions
• Discuss findings based on your analysis
• Use model to predict average number of hours worked in December 2022

NOTE: All of this needs to be collated together into a coherent 2,500 word-processed report which should include your methodology and discussion/analysis of results along with any relevant screenshots/plots (see below for further details). You SHOULD NOT include all data, results and output in your report and you should be selective in what is included to ensure the president/director can understand your findings and suggestions.

Report Presentation

As a guideline, your report to the president/director should be structured to include the following points:

1. Brief introduction. This should detail the purpose and structure of the report.
2. Methodology. This section should include, but not be limited to, the following for each area of the project:
   1. outline and justification of the quantitative modelling method used
   2. implementation issues (e.g. modelling assumptions)
3. Statistical Analysis. This section should include but not be limited to, the following discussions for each area:
   1. description of how you determined the types of model(s) to use
   2. relevant graphical and/or tabular output
   3. analysis of findings/results
4. Discussion of Findings. This section should include but not be limited to, the following for each area:
   1. summary presentations of the findings from your statistical analyses
   2. the benefits/downsides of using your selected models for this case study
   3. any insights or suggestions based on your findings
5. References: provide some evidence of reading, all referencing must be in Harvard format (look beyond the module notes)
6. Appendices (only required if necessary).

Your report should be no more than 2,500 words; this limit excludes tables, figures, captions, table of contents, references and appendices. Beyond this, if you are not sure then assume it is included in the word limit. Your report should be written using size 12 Arial font, justified and use double line spacing (this lends itself to easier reading).

Divide your report into sections with clear headings (use the format described in points 1-6). You should provide a clear report title. Pay attention to the professional appearance and use of language. Do not use ‘clip art’ or fancy fonts and page borders. Figures and tables should be legible, correctly titled and include a caption. Avoid the use of footnotes and tabloid style presentation. Show correct use of grammar with no spelling errors. Use appendices only if necessary and choose to use them for their relevance and not as a continuation of the debate (or they will be included as part of the word count). The style of the report should be appropriate to a management report and NOT like an essay.

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